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The euro set a 4yr low on Jun 7 at 1.1875 its life-time range is 82.25 (Oct 2000) to $1.6040 (July 08)
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The 2009 range was 772 to 4,661 on Nov 19 and BDI index was 3,005 at year end. In May 2008, the BDI gained its highest level ever at 11,793 and then began its slump in mid-July the same year. In Dec.5, 2008 it settled at 663 pts, the lowest Baltic Dry Index rate. The 20 year average is near 2,300.
Keep In Mind (updated on June 5)
* Sovereign debt crisis will continue: EU states must raise €1.6 trillion in 2010 To quantify the now weekly concerns with European sovereign credit and the exposure the European banking system has to it, here is the amount of certain sovereign debt that matures by year end that must be rolled over and thus doesn’t account for new debt that will be added on top of it: Italy, 208b euros, Spain 68b euros, Portugal 12b euros, Ireland 4.5b euros, France 215b euros, and Germany 255b euros. The UK needs to rollover 89b pounds and the US $2 trillion. -Big Picture on June 4 * Global economy could slow dramatically if China tightens due to property bubble * Protectionism and the rise of economic nationalism; Germany in the forefront * De-risking trades favor the dollar and yen and put commodities under pressure * Massive $1.4 trillion US federal budget deficit; higher taxes needed * Fiscal and monetary stimulus fading; transfer payments at 18% of personal income * State, local and regional governments face a major funding crisis by summer * Large public and private pension plans have $2 trillion funding shortfall * Strategic defaults by residential owners near 12%; 11.4 mil mortgages underwater * Real estate deflation? Owners' equivalent rent is 24% of total core CPI * Rental vacancies near 10%; no pricing power; huge overhang of unsold houses * Social security systems are likely to be raided; social unrest is probable * Corporations need to refinance $2 trillion maturing over next 5 years * US and European banks face huge debt rollovers; lack sufficient capital * ECB says banks will suffer an additional €195 billion ($239 billion) in write-downs * Weak employment: 300,000 new jobs a month to get a 5% unemployment within 7 years * 81 bank failures in 2010; unofficial problem list: 762 with assets of $385.9 bln * AIG, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and GMAC are long-term wards of the state * Commercial real estate foreclosures could have “catastrophic effects” on banks * Huge CRE losses for life insurance carriers on mortgages; 50% are underwater * Gasoline is still expensive near $2.94; record is $4.11 in summer of '08 * Capacity utilization at 73.7%; far below normal and -8.5% below 80.5% in Nov 2007 * Uncertainty over the coming U.S. midterm elections in November * Tougher profit comparisons in coming quarters
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